Prediction Time
Posted on November 1st, 2008
by Daniel McCarthy |
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My sense is that Obama will win the popular vote 52-48 percent, but since that’s also what the Evans-Novak Political Report is forecasting, I’ll make a more daring projection of 53-47 percent for the Democrat. Even that might be conservative, since I see little reason to think that undecideds (somewhere between 7 and 9 percent of voters) will break heavily for McCain. Obama will win just about every state that’s in contention: Pennsylvania (which isn’t really in contention), Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Florida. Missouri will have an asterisk — Obama wasn’t wasting words when he said in Springfield recently that things are going to get ugly. Expect some kind of shenanigans in St. Louis.
To get a sense of how bad things are for McCain, just look at what’s happening in RealClearPolitics’ battleground states round-up. Their polling averages have Arkansas, South Carolina, and even Arizona (where Obama has recently made a TV ad buy) softening up for McCain — his home state is even listed as a toss-up. But I don’t think any of them will flip. Indiana? Maybe. Georgia should stay red at the presidential level, but I think Sen. Saxby Chambliss is a goner.
My Senate guesses aren’t anything outside of the mainstream: Democrats will pick up Virginia (of course), Colorado, Alaska, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Oregon. I suspect Al Franken will pull through in Minnesota. Landrieu will persevere in Louisiana, as will Republican Sen. Roger Wicker in Mississippi.
The youth vote won’t be vastly larger than it was four years ago, but the African-American vote will be.
Looking ahead to 2012, neither Sarah Palin nor Mike Huckabee will be a serious contender. This year, both Palin and Obama were inexperienced, yet plainly there was a vast gulf between them in terms of presidential readiness. That gulf will be chasmic in four years, when Obama is the incumbent commander in chief. Even if his administration has wound up like Jimmy Carter’s, Republicans will need someone highly competent to oppose him. Carter didn’t lose n ‘80 just because he was unpopular, but because his opponent, Ronald Reagan, was the most appealing figure the GOP could have fielded. Similarly, in 1992 the Democrats nominated a masterful politician, Bill Clinton, to take down Bush the First. The GOP will be looking for someone with that degree of political acumen. Failing that, they’ll settle, as they did in 1996, for an establishment placeholder. In 2012, that might be Mitt Romney, who secured the goodwill of the GOP kingmakers by bowing out of the primary fight after Super Tuesday.
The GOP’s dream candidate in 2012 would be someone like General Petraeus, and I think there’ll be a strong but unsuccessful effort to draft him. The Bush family name will still be radioactive, so no Jeb. Conditions will be propitious for an insurgent candidate in the primaries, but it won’t be Palin and it won’t be Huckabee, whose future lies in talk shows and diet books.
Filed under: Conservatism, Election, Foreign policy, Politics
Any predictions on BJ Lawson, Tom McClintock, or Bob Conley’s races?
Jindal?
McCain’s weakening in the South Carolina polls is good news for Conley, but even extraordinary Democratic turnout probably won’t be enough to get rid of Lindsey Graham. But Conley pulled off one upset in winning the Democratic nomination; maybe lightning can strike twice.
The McClintock race is generally rated a toss-up, and I don’t have any new info on the Lawson race, though I know his people are going all-out and doing a remarkable job. What’s awful is that even good candidates like these are getting dragged down by Bush. The silver lining is, if Lawson can even get close, he’ll be well-positioned to come back in two years, when we might have the beginnings of a backlash against one-party Democratic rule in Washington, and take the seat.
Hard to know what will happen to Jindal over the next four years, but I’d give him better odds of being the GOP nominee in 2012 than Palin or Huck.
This is utter bull. Mike Huckabee has more executive experience than all the GOP candidates this year than all the others. Since when did 3 years as Lt. Governor and 10.5 years of Governor not be enough? Some people are sooooo hung up on Romney it’s a joke. Where is he? If he can’t buy the election this time around–he can’t in 2012. You don’t know middle-america. You can’t compare 1.5 years of being gov. (Sarah Palin) to 10.5 years to Huck. That is outrageous. Mitt is a fake conservative wannabe. Sheesh! Get out of your basement in D.C. and talk to real folks.
Thanks for your comment, Anne. I should clarify: I only criticized Palin for her lack of experience. Huckabee does have experience, but his career trajectory looks to be following that Bill Bennett — out of politics and into commentary. And since I find Huckabee to be very unsound in his economics and foreign policy — and suspect he has a mighty hankering to regulate fried foods, tobacco, and everything else a man can enjoy — I’ll be glad to see him advocate his views through argument rather than political power.
Dan,
Thanks for the reply! I agree that Bush is, in general, pulling down all Republican contenders, regardless of whether they’re connected to him or not. Im expecting a win by McClintock of about 3-4% and a surprise victory by BJ Lawson, the product of countless hours of working the polls while David Price gallavanted around D.C.
Conley, I expect to pull about 45%, a solid 5-6% better than he is polling.
Unfortunately, there’s little room left to doubt that McCain will give us the gift of four years of Obama on November 4. Silver lining: the McCain campaign did accomplish one very important thing. It helped introduce America to a rising conservative star. The more you learn about Governor Bobby Jindal, the more you’ll be convinced he can take the back White House and help the nation to correct course. Now is the time to look ahead to 2012. Let’s draft Bobby Jindal for the fight.
http://rightklik.blogspot.com/
Jason, how did the McCain campaign introduce us to Jindal? Jindal, unfortunately, didn’t even get a chance to speak at the convention b/c of the hurricane. If anything, McCain has introduced us to Palin and has unleashed his neocon advisers on her. I still expect Palin to be a force in 2012. Hopefully by then she’ll realize that the country is tired of foreign policy hawks.
Petraeus has described himself as a “Rockefeller Republican” and has, as much as a serving officer can, disagreed with the Bush foreign policies that so many of the GOP faithful still cling to. Do you really think that he could really make it through the GOP primary process? And, at this point, if he does decide to leave the military and enter politics, what are the odds he remains a Republican?
Good points, Mike. I don’t think Petraeus wants to get into politics, and perhaps especially not GOP politics. Could a moderate Republican general make it through the primaries? Colin Powell certainly didn’t think so back in ‘96/’96. On the other hand, a lot of Republicans seem to think that Petraeus is a god made mortal. He would still need to propitiate antiabortion voters, but if he could do that, he’d have a pretty good shot at the nomination. I don’t think he wants it, though.
Jindal got some good exposure because of the McCain campaign. More exposure would have been great, but you take what you can get. Jindal shows great promise for the future. Conservatives should be looking to the future and grooming the talent that’s out there instead of picking wounds and magnifying every fault in the people who’ve had the courage to fight.
My dream GOP candidate for 2012 is Mark Sanford.
I haven’t looked at him closely, but when I glance I see:
Fiscal Conservatism (garnered Ron Paul comparisons)
Independence from party (Is the term ‘maverick’ forever ruined?)
Executive experience (he’s a 2-term southern governor)
DC experience (3 terms in the House)
Christianity without apocalypticism (he’s Presbyterian)
A libertarian streak (school vouchers, etc.)
Social Conservativism (strongly pro-life)
I don’t know where he stands on foreign policy, but that’s a pretty strong list of positive characteristics from where I’m sitting.