Who’s on Third?
Posted on November 1st, 2008
by Daniel McCarthy |
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I’ll add to my prediction below that Ralph Nader will far outpace Bob Barr. But that’s a safe bet. What will be interesting to see is how close Chuck Baldwin, who is on fewer ballots (37 vs. 45), will get to Barr.
And thinking about it a bit more, I’m inclined to revise my pop vote estimate for Obama upwards. He’ll clobber McCain 54-46 percent. The country is about to do the Republican Party what the Bush administration has spent the last eight years doing to the country.
(Update: there’s a contradiction here, since a good showing by Nader should come at Obama’s expense, and most of the polls I’d been thinking of in coming up with a 54-46 win for Obama don’t include the third-party candidates. Nader and McKinney together might get between 1 and 2 percent, with Barr and Baldwin together getting about half that. So 53-46 or 52-45 would be a better guess.)
Filed under: Election, Politics
I was just talking to my very good friend Richard Winger today about this very subject. For all his countless failings - and I for one have come to suspect that Barr has been a Republican plant ever since he first went to work for the ACLU - I still expect him to pull over a million votes. Nader will probably do somewhat better then he did in 2004 but only because he’s getting a lot of anti-McCain votes that aren’t going to Barr.
Baldwin should get a quarter million because of Ron Paul’s endorsement and some other strokes of good luck that somehow kept the Constitution Party from going the way of the Reform Party in the last cycle. And I predict Ron Paul will flip Montana to Obama.
Third party options are interesting, and real third party options would be nice, but be careful how you vote on Tuesday. Don’t throw it away. Just 4-8 years of Obama and then maybe America will wake up and elect a much better president? Think again. Think specifically about the Supreme Court. Supreme court appointments are no small thing. The impact lasts WELL beyond the 4-8 years of the president’s presence in office. Obama’s views on the constitution are SCARY. With the cooperation of a DEM congress, Obama’s damage to this country would be enormous and probably permanent. Divided government is EXACTLY what we need right now.
http://rightklik.blogspot.com/
Jason - for people who are not in swing states, they can vote however they want and it won’t matter.
It won’t matter how ppl vote whether in a swing state or not. I am just as disdainful of McCain as I am of Obama. My 3rd party vote will not flip for either of the two puppets because I would never EVER vote for them in the first place.
If Obama gets Montana - that not because of Paul - thats because the GOP has installed a liberal farce as their figurehead. People that don’t vote on principle but on expediency are the ones to blame. This slippery slope is now in fruition as the GOP tauts a amnesty advocate, 2nd ammendment killer, pro-life antagonist, bailout supporter as the ‘conservative’ option. In the opinion of independents who will vote on principle - THAT is what you call throwing your vote away.