Specter Switches
Posted on April 28th, 2009
by Daniel McCarthy |
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The Fix is reporting that Arlen Specter will switch parties today. Dramatic, but it makes sense: not only is he more philosophically in tune with the liberal party, but as he notes in his statement, some 200,000 Pennsylvania Republicans have recently switched registration to the Democratic Party. Those were “Specter Republicans,” presumably, who turned coat, and without them Specter would have practically no chance of beating Pat Toomey in the GOP primary.
This means 60 Senate seats for the Democrats — nominally a filibuster-proof supermajority, but not really, since filibusters tend not to be along strict party lines. This sorry episode shows what a mess the GOP has become: the GOP is now too ideological to keep the likes of Specter in the party, but not ideological enough to dump them when the moment is ripe (as it was in 2004, when Toomey would have had a shot at winning a general election if the party had jettisoned Specter). The GOP winds up being the party that alienates liberal Republicans and independents, even as it continually sells out conservatives. The result: a rump minority of 40 in the Senate. It’s a perfect recipe for failure, both in strict electoral terms and all the more so in the substantial policy terms that conservatives should care about.
Filed under: Politics
I don’t see how this turns out well for Specter. Now instead of being flanked from the right for abortion, gay rights, immigration, etc., now he’ll receive fire from the left for his posistions on Labor, taxes, and Iraq. The left will be very eager to find a more progressive candidate and attack his integrity for swapping parties.
I can only express my relief as a Pennsylvania Republican. Arlan Spincter has always been about deal making and self promotion. I suppose the D’s offered him something and being a rootless bastard, he did the what is only too natural for him.
You’re right about the hapless inability of the GOP to define itself in a way that satisfies either constituencies or ideas. Spector, Whitman, McCain, various Bush’s et al have used the power of office to the disadvantage of their own party faithful for far too long. If the GOP is ever to lead as a conservative party, it needs an enema first.
I can only express my relief that the”D’s” won’t have to worry too much about Republican obstuctionism, anymore, Thom.
Can we bury the miserable GOP, already?
Mr. Carl has a point. The Democrats do not actually promote turncoats in the long run. At least on the local and state level, Democrats usually thank the turncoat and proceed to replace him at the earliest opportunity. Look for Arlen to be appointed as Ambassador to Belgium. But given his age and health concerns this is a moot point.
The downside is that this makes it more likely that Specter will continue to haunt the U.S. Senate for another six years. Instead of going down in the GOP primary next year, he’ll easily take the Democratic nomination (I think the Left is more opportunistic than Mr. Carl suggests) and win re-election.
Daniel, I think the Democrat plan is to nominate and elect Specter, who will then step down in a few years to be replaced by a favored Democrat in a special election in a favorable year; Hence the ambassadorship. Of course I’m just guessing.
Could you say the GOP is haunted by a Specter of irrelevance? Ehehehehehe…
(Crickets)
I couldn’t help myself, guys.
Look for a Green Party candidate to jump in and get LOTS of progressive votes.
Is one permitted on this site to take this quote “It’s a perfect recipe for failure” as an encouraging sign that there could be potential here for a third party to emerge as a replacement for the GOP? Say, something more rational, like a truly “classical liberal” party—amalgamating libertarian, conservative and Hayekian “Old Whig” thinking?
Keith Töpfer
Good-bye and good riddance most Republicans would say, but I don’t think Specter will be welcomed with open arms by many Pennsylvania Democrats who still bare his partisan wounds over the past 40 years. He’ll get a primary challenge, just not a state party supported one.
By the way, remind me never to gamble with Rick Santorum, since he is obviously bad luck. Mr. Party Hack himself could have prevent today from happening by either endorsing Pat Toomey in 2004 or just leaving well enough alone. Instead he just had to be a good little company man and endorse the incumbent, helping him get re-elected. A lot fat good it did him two years later. His career is wrecked and now for the first time since World War II there are no Republican Senators from Pennsylvania. The man’s a jinx!
Hard to forget that Specter thought that Bill Clinton’s impeachment was unfair and voted “not proven,” a verdict that only exists in Scottish law, which the recorder registered as a not-guilty. Too bad his principles didn’t embrace opposing the Iraq war. Tough break for Republicans that he didn’t lose to Toomey in the 2004 primary. Guess we’ll be stuck with his sanctimonious claptrap for a while longer.
Trent: If only there were lots of progressive votes to get! I suspect there aren’t enough die-hard progressives or conservatives in PA to make a third party viable even as a spoiler, although Paul Gottfried tells me good things about the PA Constitution Party.
One of the practical political lessons here is the power that a primary challenge can wield. Among the vast reservoir of general election voters, guys like Specter are not worried about a few tens of thousands of philosophically hard-core people. But if you get a few tens of thousands into the primary system, you can shake things up. (Though in Specter’s case it was the other way around: his “moderate” base left the GOP, deserting the field to Toomey’s voters by default.) You have proportionally more power with the same number of die-hard activists in a smaller electorate. That’s why I argue that primaries, not general elections, should be the serious constitutionalist’s first target.
There is too much talk on the “right” about the GOP changing to accomodate a new, more left- leaning political reality. They need to attempt to change the politcial reality, not give into it.
I assume Peg Luksik is still running. Does anyone know if she is a non-interventionist? If so, maybe she could get some of the Ron Paul vote in the primary.
I can never forgive Specter’s betrayal of Robert Bork.
BTW, Todd on MSNBC just mentioned that now, Specter’s Philadelphia friends, like Ed Rendell, can now “openly” fund his campaigns. Interesting that this tidbit never was considered news in the past.
I went to a fund raising lunch for him one time. And there was something about him that I never liked. Something weird. Can’t really put my finer on it though. Now has a member of the Republican Jewish coalition I have to pray that Eric Cantor stays alive.
It’s too bad the political media has a lazy habit of making sure all election coverage adheres to a 2-way narrative, because a 3-way race in PA would be interesting.
Also, Specter’s switch is just one more reason why Gun Control is off the agenda until after 2010 (and hopefully longer if the GOP rebounds). He has a fairly pro-gun record, and any diversion from that would cost him, big-time, in central PA. Remember that it’s easier for the Democrats to get high totals in the cities in Presidential elections than it is otherwise, so it still matters.
Primaries are often overloooked but they can be very important elections in looking upon the make-up and direction of a political party at any level. Look at the way the Netroots emerged in Ned Lamont’s primary against Joe Lieberman and look at the way the Club for Growth got Pat Toomey’s campaign off the ground in 2004 against Specter. Dan’s right that for Constitutionalists, the first route to go through has to be through the party primary.
Free at last, free at last, Thank god almighty free at last. On behalf of conservatives everywhere. (I’m Canadian).
He took power away from a true conservative vote and voice in opposition to the bad guys for years.
That he leaves the present desires of republicans in that state and therefore all past republican desires is evidence of his true colours.
As another poster mentioned here his being jewish was always to me the most important point as to his motivations. I smelled always the liberal establishment smirked at a Jewish man being a republican senator and yet not a conservative. As if they were saying COME ON what’s the deal.
they were right.
The republican party has become at heart the party of billy yank and johnny reb and some assimulated European Catholics and all with the deeper christian identity and presumptions.. The democratic party is of the hyphenated citizen and establishment class.
No room for in betweens.