Comments on: Biography Politics

By: conradg

conradg — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 22:33:53 +0000

I agree that Obama will be hit by a wave of smears of the most atrocious duplicity and silliness. Some will stick for some people, but I think over time – and there’s a lot of time between now and November – most of this will backfire. It’s really embarrassing, not to Obama, but to the country, and I think that will be the end result. It will probably end up producing a great deal of sympathy for Obama, and be viewed as some great national purgation. I think people may even end up feeling obligated to elect him if only to prove that we aren’t such a bigoted and stupid people as these smears imply.

By: Daniel Larison

Daniel Larison — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 06:03:49 +0000

The advisors are real enough, but the anti-Israel stuff is the fantasy. Brzezinski is hardly anti-Israel, and neither is Power, which doesn’t mean that legions of people won’t still fall for this line. I don’t doubt that some voters will assume the worst and conclude that Obama’s people are somehow unacceptable. The pastor and church connection is trickier, but it may be Farrakhan’s enthusiasm for Obama, rather than any tenuous connections between Wright and Farrakhan, that does more damage. It makes no sense to punish someone for an unsought endorsement, but it’s the sort of thing that can dog a campaign or any public figure.

By: mike

mike — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 04:41:04 +0000

I think Obama will be trashed by smears, but not THOSE smears. Over the past few weeks I have had anti-Obama spam passed to me by three separate friends- all Jewish, all Democrats.

None of the spam emails are stupid enough to claim that Obama is a Muslim. Instead, they focus on the following:

1. Obama’s pastor is pro-Farrakhan.
2. Some of Obama’s alleged advisers are anti-Israel.

In other words, guilt by association. (Never mind that McCain has suggested sending Jim “F–k the Jews” Baker to negotiate Middle East peace!)

These are the kind of attacks that (unlike the claims that he is a Muslim) are likely to play well among people who are, or think they are, reasonably well-educated.

By: Daniel Larison

Daniel Larison — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 04:24:33 +0000

Perhaps I am too biased against mass democracy, but I think stupid and desperate attacks will almost always work if they are used with some precision and the target neglects to respond for even a short time. So far he is responding to them reasonably well after trying to ignore them for many months, but I think he is underestimating the continuing and building influence of these attacks among voters beyond the Democratic primary electorate, especially among voters who start to pay close attention only after the conventions. These attacks are not going to shake the party faithful, and so have not made much of a dent in the primaries, but moderates and independents and late-deciding voters will be a different story.

By: conradg

conradg — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 02:03:31 +0000

Well, the question is whether stupid and desperate attacks work anymore. You can’t fool all the people all the time, and these tactics are wearing very thin. We’ve seen this way too often, and seen the results. I thnk the real question is how Obama responds to this. If he gets defensive and “shamed” by these things, he’s done. If he sloughs them off and dismisses them as absurd, and fights back by pointing out how unpatriotic it is to advocate the kind of foreign policy we now have, I think he can reverse this pattern in our politics. That is the “change” he is talking about in our national discourse. I’m curious to see whether he can do this, and supportive of it. The “hope” he talks about is the hope that we can grow up as a nation and put this kind of slime behind us. I’m not sure which way it will go, but there are positive signs in how well Obama seems to be handling these attacks so far.

By: adam

adam — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 20:32:00 +0000

“Yes, but these claims are too obviously bogus and too obviously desperate to change the vote of anyone (except to switch them to voting for Obama).”

I wish I had that level of confidence. The Obama is a Muslim slur is clearly bogus. Likewise the Obama attended an Indonesian madrassah. The Weatherman and Louis Farrakahn issues are out there, and will be used, and will bite Obama. The good news for Obama is that he has the power to defuse both of them by essentially telling both of them to get buggered.

By: davegnyc

davegnyc — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 19:38:03 +0000

Yes, but these claims are too obviously bogus and too obviously desperate to change the vote of anyone (except to switch them to voting for Obama).

If they had better stuff I assume they would use it. Maybe they are just “warming up,” or maybe they got nothin.

At the end of the day you are going to have to convince people that the it is better to vote for the white guy who want to keeps sending your kids to the meatgrinder or the half black guy who want to pull them out.

I think that will be a hard sell.

By: Daniel Larison

Daniel Larison — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 18:31:31 +0000

Yes, he wrote about a tie pin, which is stupid. But stupid and desperate tactics work surprisingly often. The people deploying these attacks don’t care whether anyone else finds them embarrassing, provided that they are having an effect on the election.

By: davegnyc

davegnyc — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 18:26:09 +0000

The whole thing is quite embarrassing for the people trying to use these tactics.

I mean, did Kristol really right something on a tie pin today? Absolutely embarrassing.

It reeks of desperation, frankly.

The only strategy that has a chance is if McCain starts telling (lying) that he is going to start pulling troops out when he gets in office. A few people will be stupid enough to believe him.

You will know they Republicans have become serious at that point. But, if he waits too long even that will be too transparent a fraud to work.

By: Grumpy Old Man

Grumpy Old Man — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 18:19:57 +0000

The African thing, like his use of General American English, actually makes Sen. Obama seem less of an American black. It almost makes him an "honorary Aryan" as the Nazis called the Japanese. And watch--the coronation will be replete with patriotic symbolism. If Paris is worth a Mass, the White House is worth some bunting.

By: Daniel Larison

Daniel Larison — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 18:06:21 +0000

There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that the Muslim bit is sticking, including among Democratic voters, and I think we assume that it will have little impact because it is so transparently untrue. If it creates doubts about Obama, it could meaningfully hurt him by the end of the campaign. I agree that the Weathermen and Farrakhan items are also potentially significant problems.

By: adam

adam — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 17:59:10 +0000

A lot of these “undernews” stories are going to be used, and a few of them are going to stick, and hurt.

1. Obama’s association (however tenuous) with former members of the Weather Underground.

2. Being sort of endorsed by Louis Farrakahn

I’m not sure if the larger “world man” meme is going to hurt him so much, or if it does, it will be among people already disinclined to support him, but people know who the Weathermen were, and they know who Louis Farrakahn is, and being assoicated with them will be problematic. The Obama is a Muslim stuff, not so much.