GOP Senate Woes
Posted on March 28th, 2008
by Daniel Larison |
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Jim Antle writes:
If McCain carries swing states like New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado and New Mexico or runs up huge margins in red states like Kentucky or even Virginia, it could make the difference in the Senate contests.
If the current Kentucky polling holds up, local Democrats are going to want to stay as far away from Obama as possible. According to SUSA’s latest, 61% of Kentuckians say they will vote against Obama no matter who his VP is. McConnell is probably safe in this environment, and this anti-Obama sentiment could bleed over into the KY-03 House race that has a rematch from ‘06 between Yarmuth (who has backed Obama) and Northup. Virginia is a much more difficult proposition for the GOP, since Mark Warner is enormously popular, and recent statewide elections have been trending Democratic, which means that McCain’s best hope is for a lot of split-ticket voting. He is unlikely to run up large margins in Virginia, though Rasmussen currently shows him with a wide lead over Obama (11 points). New Hampshire is not necessarily out of reach at the presidential level, but it is unlikely that McCain can save Sununu, who has suffered from large deficits against Shaheen from the beginning of last year. Recent polling has shown Minnesota to be competitive in the presidential race, but any boost for Coleman here would probably be tied to a Pawlenty VP selection. The Senate race in Colorado is going to be more competitive, in part because Schaffer has already started his campaign; the Republicans in New Mexico are getting a late start on the general (they are not determining their nominee until June), they are going to be badly bruised by the primary fight between Pearce and Wilson, and the state party is a shambles. The best chance for anyone to come in on McCain’s coattails is probably in Colorado.
Filed under: politics
[...] Now it takes an especially obtuse reader to conclude from these posts that I think that the Republicans have even a remote chance of retaking either house of Congress this year. I said nothing of the kind. I have been saying for almost a year that Republican chances in House and Senate races were terrible, and nothing I said in these posts contradicts that. I did say that the Colorado Senate race appears competitve, because it does appear competitive, as does Minnesota at the present time.  But when all is said and done, I assume the GOP will lose five or six seats in the Senate, regardless of McCain’s possible coattails, but no one credible seriously claims that Kentucky is likely to be one of them. In the House I have explicitly said that I think that there are at least 40+ seats that could realistically be captured by the Democrats this year, and that seems right. If NM-02, a pretty reliably Republican seat, is really up for grabs, the Democrats could significantly increase their majority. As for the rest of the silly criticism in the post, the author might want to be careful what he wishes for.  [...]