Comments on: Away Until Monday http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/04/25/away-until-monday/ n. the principle of good order<br /><br /> "Observe the strange inversion of all order and sense! Dignity debased; how vilely is the function of a consul prostituted!" ~The Craftsman Sun, 22 Nov 2009 09:39:05 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.3 hourly 1 By: Eunomia » The Illness Of Optimism http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/04/25/away-until-monday/comment-page-1/#comment-12092 Eunomia » The Illness Of Optimism Tue, 08 Jul 2008 22:20:42 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/04/25/away-until-monday/#comment-12092 [...] The disappointment-generating machine that is the Obama campaign is firing on all cylinders, judging from laments such as this one: Only an idiot would think or hope that a politician going through the crucible of a presidential campaign could hold fast to every position, steer clear of the stumbling blocks of nuance and never make a mistake. But Barack Obama went out of his way to create the impression that he was a new kind of political leader — more honest, less cynical and less relentlessly calculating than most. [...] [...] The disappointment-generating machine that is the Obama campaign is firing on all cylinders, judging from laments such as this one: Only an idiot would think or hope that a politician going through the crucible of a presidential campaign could hold fast to every position, steer clear of the stumbling blocks of nuance and never make a mistake. But Barack Obama went out of his way to create the impression that he was a new kind of political leader — more honest, less cynical and less relentlessly calculating than most. [...]

]]> By: Daniel Larison http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/04/25/away-until-monday/comment-page-1/#comment-10241 Daniel Larison Sun, 27 Apr 2008 20:12:57 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/04/25/away-until-monday/#comment-10241 You could be right that his problem with Catholic voters may not necessarily be because they are Catholics. Because of the size of the American Catholic community and its diversity, which Ross mentioned in the short item mentioned above, it is somewhat misleading to talk about "the Catholic vote," since this may be not much more meaningful than talking about "the American vote." I keep focusing on levels of Democratic support for Obama in the general election polling to try to get a sense of how many of these Clinton votes end up defecting to the other side. Primary fight or not, if he isn't retaining more than 70% of Democrats in a given state he is having a problem with core constituencies, and one of the constituencies that seems to keep giving him the most resistance would be working- and middle-class Catholic Democrats. It would be worth checking Obama's suburban results against the size of the Catholic vote in those counties to see where in the suburbs he was getting his strongest support and whether his losses in places such as Berks County were the result of Rendell's popularity or some other combination of factors. Possibly more significant in the PA results than revealing his limited appeal to rural voters is the relative weakness in the suburbs. Arguably, because suburban voters have been trending Democratic in recent years Obama may be even less likely to lose these in the general, but if he cannot capitalise on growing Democratic strength in the suburbs he could be a far weaker candidate than almost anyone has supposed. You could be right that his problem with Catholic voters may not necessarily be because they are Catholics. Because of the size of the American Catholic community and its diversity, which Ross mentioned in the short item mentioned above, it is somewhat misleading to talk about “the Catholic vote,” since this may be not much more meaningful than talking about “the American vote.”

I keep focusing on levels of Democratic support for Obama in the general election polling to try to get a sense of how many of these Clinton votes end up defecting to the other side. Primary fight or not, if he isn’t retaining more than 70% of Democrats in a given state he is having a problem with core constituencies, and one of the constituencies that seems to keep giving him the most resistance would be working- and middle-class Catholic Democrats. It would be worth checking Obama’s suburban results against the size of the Catholic vote in those counties to see where in the suburbs he was getting his strongest support and whether his losses in places such as Berks County were the result of Rendell’s popularity or some other combination of factors. Possibly more significant in the PA results than revealing his limited appeal to rural voters is the relative weakness in the suburbs. Arguably, because suburban voters have been trending Democratic in recent years Obama may be even less likely to lose these in the general, but if he cannot capitalise on growing Democratic strength in the suburbs he could be a far weaker candidate than almost anyone has supposed.

]]> By: M.Z. Forrest http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/04/25/away-until-monday/comment-page-1/#comment-10234 M.Z. Forrest Fri, 25 Apr 2008 20:31:57 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/04/25/away-until-monday/#comment-10234 As an addendum, a blessed Easter to you. As an addendum, a blessed Easter to you.

]]> By: M.Z. Forrest http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/04/25/away-until-monday/comment-page-1/#comment-10233 M.Z. Forrest Fri, 25 Apr 2008 18:49:39 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/04/25/away-until-monday/#comment-10233 <i>Also, following up on Ross’ old item from The Current, the Pennsylvania results drive home just how unrepresentative of general Catholic opinion about Obama Profs. Kmiec and Bacevich seem to be and the profile of his supporters does suggest that as academics they are drawn to Obama the academic. </i> Given that 60% Catholics, at least when each primary was competitive, were voting in the Democratic primary, I think it is too much to assert that they won't vote for Obama. Obviously in due course we'll know this officially. I've maintained that Obama doesn't have a specifically Catholic problem in the primaries so much as the groups he has issues against are composed of Catholics. Also, following up on Ross’ old item from The Current, the Pennsylvania results drive home just how unrepresentative of general Catholic opinion about Obama Profs. Kmiec and Bacevich seem to be and the profile of his supporters does suggest that as academics they are drawn to Obama the academic.

Given that 60% Catholics, at least when each primary was competitive, were voting in the Democratic primary, I think it is too much to assert that they won’t vote for Obama. Obviously in due course we’ll know this officially. I’ve maintained that Obama doesn’t have a specifically Catholic problem in the primaries so much as the groups he has issues against are composed of Catholics.

]]> By: Agreements « Upturned Earth | by John Schwenkler http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/04/25/away-until-monday/comment-page-1/#comment-10232 Agreements « Upturned Earth | by John Schwenkler Fri, 25 Apr 2008 17:03:31 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/04/25/away-until-monday/#comment-10232 [...] Ross Douthat on Obamacynicism. [EDIT: Daniel Larison, too.] [...] [...] Ross Douthat on Obamacynicism. [EDIT: Daniel Larison, too.] [...]

]]>