Steep Appalachian Hills Revisited
Posted on May 7th, 2008
by Daniel Larison |
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Still, big victories in West Virginia and Kentucky will help Clinton make the argument that she is indispensable.
What Obama needs to do is fight hard in those states to keep her victories muted.
Actually, what he needs to do is to change the subject and act as if these primaries are not happening (or, to borrow a page from the Clintons, to claim that they “don’t really count”), because there is simply no way that he is going to change the powerful opposition to him in these states. Imagine the resistance that he faced in the Monongahela Valley, and then expand it to include entire states, and you have an idea of what he’s up against. Among white Democrats in Kentucky, he has a 51% unfav rating. He has a 45% unfav rating among 18-29 year olds , and 12% very unfavourable among black voters, and this is in a closed primary. Those 30-39 year olds really don’t like him–they go for Clinton 67-20. He is set to lose both states by 25+ points, and large numbers (40% in both states) say they are unlikely to vote for him in the fall. West Virginia is in some ways more bleak: 24% of black voters view him very unfavourably there, he has an overall unfav rating of 50%, and trails Clinton by almost thirty. If she wins late deciding voters as she often does (and did again yesterday), we could be looking at 40+ point margins. The less attention he brings to these primaries, the better for him. McCain has problems unifying his party, but they are as nothing compared to this.
P.S. This is also why she isn’t going to go away for the next month, despite the certainty that she will not be the nominee. As the old line put it, she’s come too long, too far, too slow to stop now. Obama boosters will be having fits for weeks, denouncing Clinton in ever-more vituperative ways, which will work to aggravate the already difficult task of unifying the party..
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6 Responses to “Steep Appalachian Hills Revisited”
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Newt’s recent proposal demonstrates the (justified) Republican panic at the on-coming freight train that is the 2008 election, no?
Problem is, the Republicans won’t get off the track labeled “Iraq war,” which is the direction that train is coming from.
Plastow!
Counting on Clinton to do the right thing is a bit much, isn’t it? I don’t think Obama can ignore Kentucky and West Virginia, because there is talk now of Oregon being the coup de grace. How many of those can we have by the way? I think he would best by served by treating Clinton as ’she who shall not be named.’ He could possibly prematurely thank her for offering a spirited campaign and just act like the winner without being triumphal.
The House elections are going to be another bloodletting, no doubt about that. It’s not out of the question that the New Mexico delegation in 2009 could be all Democrats if everything breaks the right way for them, and that would be a first in my lifetime. This is exactly why this is looking more and more like 1988 all the time.
Oregon is probably going to be close. If people put too much emphasis on Oregon and then it turns against him, they will feel pretty silly. The best move is to take it as a given that the nomination is his and simply stop pretending that there is a competition going on. The superdelegates are looking for permission or a sign to end it, and he needs to give them that sign. Continuing on with campaigning as if nothing has changed will guarantee that nothing changes.
“This is also why she isn’t going to go away for the next month, despite the certainty that she will not be the nominee.”
The Clinton’s have never had any great regard for the Democratic Party except as a vehicle for their ambitions. I think she has no motive left other than to make sure he staggers and limps, rather than marches triumphantly, across the finish line.
I agree that Obama should ignore the remaining primaries.. Electorally, the rest of the season is a wash. South Dakota and Montana cancel out West Virgina. Oregon cancels out Kentucky. (I don’t see Orgeon as being at all close). Peurto Rico is at worst a split for Obama. Nothing on the map changes anything. So he should act as others finally seem to be doing - that it’s over.
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