Low Ceiling
Posted on May 9th, 2008 by Daniel Larison
Following up on the last posts on West Virginia and Kentucky, I would note that Obama’s level of support in West Virginia today (according to ARG) is essentially identical to his level of support in March 2007. A little over one fifth of West Virginia Democrats backed Obama then, and the same people still back him. He has gained no ground in 14 months. ARG’s crosstabs have Obama losing the white vote by 50 points.
Filed under: politics
Related to the troubles Obama is having with these demographics, one thing to consider:
http://www.themonkeycage.org/2008/05/will_obama_unify_the_democrati.html
“Early data from this election also portends a high degree of party loyalty. See this, from an April Pew poll. Already, large percentages of Democrats (77%) say they will vote for Obama against McCain. (Party loyalty among Democrats in the unlikely Clinton-McCain race is 81% — which, given sampling error, is indistinguishable from 77%.) Republicans are, right now, more unified (85% say they will vote for McCain), but this isn’t surprising, since the Republican race has been decided for much longer.”
If 77% are already saying that they will come around and vote for Obama, that number will surely rise over the next few months, and he has positioned himself fairly well to close that gap as it becomes a two man race with McCain. If it doesn’t, that will be the canary in the coal mine that the Obama team will be looking for that they haven’t closed the deal with a lot of blue collar white Dems. I am having an increasingly hard time seeing how gas at $5 per gallon by Labor Day doesn’t help Obama amongst these voters.
It’s also important to keep in mind that there are a much larger number of people self-identifying as Democrats vs. 2004 or 2000, so Obama could be getting a very slightly smaller slice of a very much larger Democratic pie come November, as well as a good chunk of independents.
That’s some interesting data, but it isn’t clear why “that number will surely rise.” If a quarter of Democrats routinely say they will vote for McCain rather than Obama, 77% could well be Obama’s maximum level of support from fellow partisans.
“I am having an increasingly hard time seeing how gas at $5 per gallon by Labor Day doesn’t help Obama amongst these voters.”
Then again, maybe many people will be looking at $5/gallon gas and remember that McCain supported the ridiculous, stupid gas tax holiday and that Obama opposed it. Never mind that it’s an absurd proposal that would change nothing. That difference might end up making a difference with shortsighted voters.