Why Doesn’t He Quit Already?
Posted on May 14th, 2008
by Daniel Larison |
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That’s apparently the question that 25% of Democrats, 26% of liberals and 19% of black voters want to ask, since these are the people who think Obama should drop out of the race. 29% of Democrats think Clinton should run as an independent, which may be a good measure of how many ABO Democrats there are.
One of the things that I often hear when I cite Obama’s weakness with Democratic voters is that there are simply so many more Democratic voters now that 75% of them will be enough in conjunction with support from independents, while McCain is retaining a higher percentage of a smaller pool of voters among Republicans. Fair enough as far as it goes, but, if these percentages are representative, it also means that the actual numbers of voters who are alienated from Obama are consequently much higher than in previous cycles when there were fewer Democrats. Losing a quarter of Democrats to the GOP nominee in the past was not desirable, but it is actually much more of a weakness now that a quarter of all Democrats translates into many more votes.
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9 Responses to “Why Doesn’t He Quit Already?”
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“29% of Democrats think Clinton should run as an independent”
Not the sign of a party that is going to kiss and make up come 6/4/08.
This is the Seinfeld campaign. Issue-wise, it’s about nothing. Even the identity differences are manufactured. Wellesley-Yale-Rose Law Firm Hilalry just doesn’t seem very proletarian to me, and but for the one-drop rule, Barack ain’t that black, either.
Hence, no doubt, the struggle will be as bitter as the Troubles in Ireland, which also concerned identity issues not obvious to the ousider.
And the alternative, my friends, is John “Maj. Kong” McCain.
This is silly. McCain supporters reacted the same way to Bush. I will bet anything you want that Obama quite simply will not lose a quarter of Democrats this fall.
“McCain supporters reacted the same way to Bush.”
Nearly a third of McCain voters said they would vote for Gore in 2000? I’m not saying you’re wrong, I’d just like to see something to back it up. Also, the McCain “insurgency” in 2000 lasted barely 2 months, from NH to Super Tuesday, not the 4+ month Bataan Death March the current Dem contest has become…
Pessimism distorts one’s vision. Prepare to eat these words come fall. All said and done, even under these bad conditions, Obama is beating Mccain in national polls. People who say they want Hillary to run as a third party candidate are apparently still choosing Obama in a two way race. The fault here is in thinking that the average voter is either consistent or logical in his answers to poll questions.
It should also be repeated that almost any question asked by pollsters these days will find some support, even rather outlandish questions. A lot of people just don’t have a clue.
If McCain is pulling in 85% of republicans, vs. Obama’s 75% of Dems, and independents are split pretty evenly, that may be enough all by itself to take Obama past the finish line.
” it also means that the actual numbers of voters who are alienated from Obama are consequently much higher than in previous cycles when there were fewer Democrats. Losing a quarter of Democrats to the GOP nominee in the past was not desirable, but it is actually much more of a weakness now that a quarter of all Democrats translates into many more votes.”
But more voters out of a much larger pool, including black turnout that we have to realalistically have to assume will be super-charged as never before. There were more Dem voters in the recent Indiana primary, for example, than voted for Kerry in the 04 general election.
Of course, just to maintain some of her intra-party cred, Clinton has to ask her supporters to vote for Obama over McCain.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/14/clinton/index.html
IIRC, this is not the first time she’s done this.
McCain supporters reacted the same way to Bush.
Well, it’s worthlessly anecdotal, but this would’ve been 2000 McCain voter was disappointed enough with the Bush the Younger vs. Gore Jr. choice that I went nuts against my right-wing principles (such as they were) and voted for Nader back then.