Comments on: The Casey Belt http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/ n. the principle of good order<br /><br /> "Observe the strange inversion of all order and sense! Dignity debased; how vilely is the function of a consul prostituted!" ~The Craftsman Sun, 22 Nov 2009 09:39:05 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.3 hourly 1 By: Eunomia » An Odd Strategy http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/comment-page-1/#comment-12180 Eunomia » An Odd Strategy Sat, 12 Jul 2008 21:16:27 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/#comment-12180 [...] As Cost notes, the campaign has not been running ads in these states because these were states where Obama was particularly weak in the primaries.  Three of them are in Appalachia, and four of them belong to what I once dubbed “the Casey belt,” because of the prevalence of so-called “Casey Democrats” in these states.  The phrase refers to states that still tilt towards the Democrats in many local and state elections and continue to have greater Democratic than Republican registration, while their Democratic voters tend to be socially conservative.  So it was no accident that Obama fared quite badly with white Democrats in all of these states and lost the primaries in four of them.  There is tremendous resistance to his candidacy among many of these Democrats similar to the resistance Kerry faced, but as Cost observes the states where Obama is making unconventional ad buys demonstrated even greater resistance to Kerry.   [...] [...] As Cost notes, the campaign has not been running ads in these states because these were states where Obama was particularly weak in the primaries.  Three of them are in Appalachia, and four of them belong to what I once dubbed “the Casey belt,” because of the prevalence of so-called “Casey Democrats” in these states.  The phrase refers to states that still tilt towards the Democrats in many local and state elections and continue to have greater Democratic than Republican registration, while their Democratic voters tend to be socially conservative.  So it was no accident that Obama fared quite badly with white Democrats in all of these states and lost the primaries in four of them.  There is tremendous resistance to his candidacy among many of these Democrats similar to the resistance Kerry faced, but as Cost observes the states where Obama is making unconventional ad buys demonstrated even greater resistance to Kerry.   [...]

]]> By: Eunomia » Going West http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/comment-page-1/#comment-11104 Eunomia » Going West Tue, 27 May 2008 19:00:00 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/#comment-11104 [...] That’s very much in line with what I was saying earlier this month. [...] [...] That’s very much in line with what I was saying earlier this month. [...]

]]> By: General Mobius http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/comment-page-1/#comment-10860 General Mobius Tue, 20 May 2008 01:45:48 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/#comment-10860 Hahaha, deal. Are you located in the greater DC area or will you be mailing me my tacos when I collect? Hahaha, deal. Are you located in the greater DC area or will you be mailing me my tacos when I collect?

]]> By: Daniel Larison http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/comment-page-1/#comment-10858 Daniel Larison Tue, 20 May 2008 01:39:57 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/#comment-10858 I could go for five tacos. Let's start with five tacos and increase the bet as the year goes on. I could go for five tacos. Let’s start with five tacos and increase the bet as the year goes on.

]]> By: General Mobius http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/comment-page-1/#comment-10856 General Mobius Tue, 20 May 2008 01:38:30 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/#comment-10856 It depends, I think, on how you would like to collect. If all at once, it seems like a semi-small number is best. Depends also on your ability to consume tacos. I am really more of a five-taco kind of man, so that's my initial offer. It depends, I think, on how you would like to collect. If all at once, it seems like a semi-small number is best. Depends also on your ability to consume tacos. I am really more of a five-taco kind of man, so that’s my initial offer.

]]> By: Daniel Larison http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/comment-page-1/#comment-10855 Daniel Larison Tue, 20 May 2008 01:35:02 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/#comment-10855 How many tacos? How many tacos?

]]> By: General Mobius http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/comment-page-1/#comment-10853 General Mobius Tue, 20 May 2008 01:31:55 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/#comment-10853 I am from Michigan. It will not go Republican. Let's wager tacos on it. I am from Michigan. It will not go Republican. Let’s wager tacos on it.

]]> By: Daniel Larison http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/comment-page-1/#comment-10833 Daniel Larison Mon, 19 May 2008 21:18:33 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/#comment-10833 @Mobius: The better question is what you're adding to it. Focusing on one almost throwaway line that points to other difficulties Obama is having in the Upper Midwest is not a response to the bulk of what I wrote. I mention Wisconsin and Michigan because these are Democratic-leaning states that Obama ought to be able to win going away, and he isn't doing that right now. That suggests that he is meeting significant resistance, and meanwhile McCain is running surprisingly well. That seems worth noting, even if McCain doesn't end up winning Wisconsin, which is very difficult for Republicans to do. McCain's chances in Michigan are better, given the Democratic failure in handling the primary and McCain's relatively strong popularity in the state (a state he lost in the primaries only because of Romney's strong personal connection to the state and immense spending effort). Michigan going Republican is nowhere near as far-fetched as your dismissive comment implies. I wrote the above sentence because it sums up a statement about the current polling that expresses the same thought as this paragraph of exposition--McCain has some chance to win these states, and if he does Obama is out of luck. @Mobius:

The better question is what you’re adding to it. Focusing on one almost throwaway line that points to other difficulties Obama is having in the Upper Midwest is not a response to the bulk of what I wrote. I mention Wisconsin and Michigan because these are Democratic-leaning states that Obama ought to be able to win going away, and he isn’t doing that right now. That suggests that he is meeting significant resistance, and meanwhile McCain is running surprisingly well. That seems worth noting, even if McCain doesn’t end up winning Wisconsin, which is very difficult for Republicans to do. McCain’s chances in Michigan are better, given the Democratic failure in handling the primary and McCain’s relatively strong popularity in the state (a state he lost in the primaries only because of Romney’s strong personal connection to the state and immense spending effort). Michigan going Republican is nowhere near as far-fetched as your dismissive comment implies. I wrote the above sentence because it sums up a statement about the current polling that expresses the same thought as this paragraph of exposition–McCain has some chance to win these states, and if he does Obama is out of luck.

]]> By: Grumpy Old Man http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/comment-page-1/#comment-10831 Grumpy Old Man Mon, 19 May 2008 20:40:18 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/#comment-10831 McCain could defeat the political auguries as an experience maverick opposing a naïf. Or this could be a year for a major political sea-change, and Obama could end up riding an avalanche. It's early days. McCain could defeat the political auguries as an experience maverick opposing a naïf.

Or this could be a year for a major political sea-change, and Obama could end up riding an avalanche.

It’s early days.

]]> By: General Mobius http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/comment-page-1/#comment-10827 General Mobius Mon, 19 May 2008 19:22:31 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/#comment-10827 If you think the slim margins won't last the entire year, why even write what you've written above? Who cares what would happen right now if you yourself don't even believe that's a good guide for what will actually happen in the election? What are you trying to add to the debate here? If you think the slim margins won’t last the entire year, why even write what you’ve written above? Who cares what would happen right now if you yourself don’t even believe that’s a good guide for what will actually happen in the election? What are you trying to add to the debate here?

]]> By: M.Z. Forrest http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/comment-page-1/#comment-10818 M.Z. Forrest Mon, 19 May 2008 16:12:12 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/#comment-10818 I find the Casey-crat thing interesting. What is being describing as an abandonment could just as easily be described as a mainstreaming. As best I can tell from polling, it appears that upwards of 60% of Catholics will support the Democratic nominee. A lot of commentary on Catholics seems premised on widespread doctrinal agreement and solidarity. I guess I just don't see it. Catholics were the big backers of Giuliani and McCain, neither of whom have been stalwarts in the pro-life community. And for all the talk on the Democratic side, they are siding with Hillary Clinton. I fail to see a compelling difference between Obama and Clinton, let alone one I could ascribe to specifically Catholic principles. I find the Casey-crat thing interesting. What is being describing as an abandonment could just as easily be described as a mainstreaming. As best I can tell from polling, it appears that upwards of 60% of Catholics will support the Democratic nominee. A lot of commentary on Catholics seems premised on widespread doctrinal agreement and solidarity. I guess I just don’t see it. Catholics were the big backers of Giuliani and McCain, neither of whom have been stalwarts in the pro-life community. And for all the talk on the Democratic side, they are siding with Hillary Clinton. I fail to see a compelling difference between Obama and Clinton, let alone one I could ascribe to specifically Catholic principles.

]]> By: Daniel Larison http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/comment-page-1/#comment-10817 Daniel Larison Mon, 19 May 2008 15:32:11 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/#comment-10817 Did I predict that he *would* win them? No, I made a conditional statement based on what is happening at the moment. And, in fact, he is leading in these places by very, very slim margins. Do I think those will last the entire year? Almost certainly not. At least in blog commenting there are no repercussions for saying nothing of value. Did I predict that he *would* win them? No, I made a conditional statement based on what is happening at the moment. And, in fact, he is leading in these places by very, very slim margins. Do I think those will last the entire year? Almost certainly not.

At least in blog commenting there are no repercussions for saying nothing of value.

]]> By: General Mobius http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/comment-page-1/#comment-10816 General Mobius Mon, 19 May 2008 14:44:54 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/05/17/the-casey-belt/#comment-10816 McCain winning Wisconsin and Michigan? That's very funny. Good luck with these predictions; at least in blogging there are no repercussions for being completely and utterly wrong. McCain winning Wisconsin and Michigan? That’s very funny. Good luck with these predictions; at least in blogging there are no repercussions for being completely and utterly wrong.

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