Split Ticket
Posted on May 27th, 2008
by Daniel Larison |
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Remember how I was saying that Obama’s profound unpopularity in Kentucky would secure Mitch McConnell’s re-election? Yes, well, that was apparently very wrong. Rasmussen has a new poll showing McConnell at 44% and trailing Lunsford by five. Incumbents polling under 50% are traditionally considered very vulnerable, and given the intense anti-GOP sentiment this year it is now easy to imagine that Kentucky flips along with perhaps as many as nine others (including a more long-shot Nebraska upset). Given such hostility to GOP incumbents in Kentucky, it is all the more remarkable that Obama gets just 32% support. There is going to be a lot of split-ticket voting this year:
Twenty-eight percent (28%) of McCain voters say they will split the ticket and vote for Lunsford.
Filed under: politics
I was reading someone today (can’t remember who) who argued (somewhat sensibly, maybe) that it will be easier to flip this seat if Obama is unpopular there. McConnell will be less able to get traction against Lunsford if he can’t cast him as a rubber stamp for the Obama agenda. Or: it’s easier for a conservative to pull the lever for a Democratic Senator if he’s simultaneously pulling the lever for a Republican President to counterbalance the Democrats’ influence.
That makes a lot of sense, and given the political atmosphere this year I should have guessed earlier on that this would be the case. It is reminiscent of voting patterns in many parts of the country during the ’80s, and it’s a useful reminder that the people who are still registered Democrats in these states are quite willing to back Democratic candidates at the federal level under the right conditions.
Given the anti-Republican mood right now, voters who may not be inclined or comfortable in voting for Obama may hedge their bets and vote more strongly Democratic, even as they vote for McCain at the top of the ticket.
Or, conversely, the people of KY might just really, really dislike Mitch McConnell.
It’s also worth noting that Lunsford is not exactly an ultra-progressive. I would classify Markos’ feelings toward him as tepid at best. Presumably that also helps in Kentucky.