So Much For The Bounce

Posted on June 16th, 2008 by Daniel Larison

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The risibly small bounce for Obama has now disappeared, and actually he now polls below where he was in late May and has returned to the level of support he had about one month ago.  That’s not surprising, and I expect we will see blips of movement for both candidates throughout the summer.  The race will likely remain very close unless and until one of the major candidates implodes, and the movement of undecided voters (7%) to one or the other will come fairly late as it usually does.  If the 8% “neither” figure is right, that opens up a larger field than usual to the third party candidates and holds out the prospect of multiple third party candidates gaining better than 1% of the vote, which is quite rare.

Filed under: politics

2 Responses to “So Much For The Bounce”

  1. conradg, on June 17th, 2008 at 11:43 am Said:

    Wow, these conclusions are so Sunday night. Even monday morning showed the national differential back at Obama +4, and tuesday morning shows Obama winning Ohio by +11. He’s neck and neck in NC and VA, and his national fav/unfav margin is bearing McCain 30-17. I guess the ball keeps bouncing, and a snapshot at any one second isn’t exactly giving much insight into this game. But please do post the next time there’s even the slightest and momentary dip in Obama’s poll numbers. You could be vindicazed yet, at least for a few microseconds!

  2. kitstolz, on June 18th, 2008 at 10:01 am Said:

    Skepticism about Obama’s policies can be a useful dash of cold water in the face for those of us who might be getting too starry-eyed, but do you really doubt that he could win?

    Pollsters certainly don’t…the bounce is real.

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/obamas-bounce-in-state-polling.html

    Landslide ahead?

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