Georgia
Posted on July 7th, 2008
by Daniel Larison |
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The Libertarian’s percentage is greater than the difference between the Democrat and the Republican. We await the Obama campaign’s denunciation of Barr as a “spoiler” who’s taking away votes from their candidate. ~Robert Stacy McCain
This last line is meant as a joke, but it would certainly be very foolish for Obama’s campaign to draw attention to the Georgia numbers. As I discuss in more detail in an upcoming column for the magazine, Barr’s polling in Georgia can be misleading for those who think that it holds out the chance of Obama winning the state. Polls that include Barr see McCain’s numbers go down or it sees the undecided vote go up, but Obama’s numbers remain static in the 41-44% range. If I am Obama trying to explain to my donors why the campaign is frittering away money on advertising in a state as unwinnable as Georgia (the impossibility of winning is driven home by McCain’s continued lead despite Barr’s inclusion in the poll), I would try to avoid mentioning specific numbers, much less cite polls that prove that the advertising is a waste of resources.
Filed under: politics
Barr puts Obama within 2 points. Why not spend the money if he has the money? If Obama has a better GOTV effort than McCain then it is a win. The GOP’s much vaunted GOTV did diddly in 2006.
Because all those undecided voters will break for McCain anyway and Obama will still lose the state by eight or nine points. The money is better spent in Colorado or Ohio, which are must-win states. Campaigning and advertising in Georgia are acts of overconfidence.
The undecideds could just stay home.
Okay, maybe, but even then Obama still loses Georgia. Have you seen his unfavs in Georgia? They’re through the roof.
Daniel–
I think his campaign is rather smart to do these “head fakes” against McCain. Example, have you seen Obama’s poll numbers in Montana and North Dakota? Hes up five points. IIRC hes something like down two in North Dakota. He got this bounce merely -by paying some attention to a state that Democrats always write off.
Its not like Obama is hard up for resources, anyway. He can afford to advertise in deep red states. McCain can’t afford due to his lack of money to do something similar and campaign and advertise in, say, Connecticut or New Jersey.