Comments on: Who Cares What The Iraqis Think? http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/07/19/who-cares-what-the-iraqis-think/ n. the principle of good order<br /><br /> "Observe the strange inversion of all order and sense! Dignity debased; how vilely is the function of a consul prostituted!" ~The Craftsman Fri, 19 Mar 2010 18:07:30 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: John Schwenkler http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/07/19/who-cares-what-the-iraqis-think/comment-page-1/#comment-12452 John Schwenkler Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:00:38 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/07/19/who-cares-what-the-iraqis-think/#comment-12452 By the way, I heard a statistic on the news yesterday that put the proportion of Iraqis who favor an (immediate? very short-term?) American withdrawal at 85%. By the way, I heard a statistic on the news yesterday that put the proportion of Iraqis who favor an (immediate? very short-term?) American withdrawal at 85%.

]]> By: montysano http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/07/19/who-cares-what-the-iraqis-think/comment-page-1/#comment-12439 montysano Sun, 20 Jul 2008 16:01:03 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/07/19/who-cares-what-the-iraqis-think/#comment-12439 Unfortunately, we live in a country where: - partisanship trumps all. So, if partisan points are to be scored by spinning this away from Obama, so it shall be spun, and what's best for the country (i.e. getting out of Iraq ASAP) be damned. Both sides of the aisle are complicit, but I'm afraid the GOP side is more guilty. - TV ratings rule the day. If trashing whatever progress BO may have made will result in advertising sales, then so it shall be. Not to drive off-topic, but one of my fantasies is that BO, if elected, will seat a bipartisan Cabinet. A non-Dem VP would be even more brilliant (Hagel?), but it'll never happen. The combo of deranged partisanship, coupled with cable news and talk radio driving the narrative, is positively wrecking the country. Rush's snickering dismissal of anything related to conservation helps no one. If BO could manage to dial back the level of partisanship, it would be a huge achievement. Unfortunately, many on my side of the aisle are only interested in punishing the GOP. This is understandable, but not helpful. Unfortunately, we live in a country where:

- partisanship trumps all. So, if partisan points are to be scored by spinning this away from Obama, so it shall be spun, and what’s best for the country (i.e. getting out of Iraq ASAP) be damned. Both sides of the aisle are complicit, but I’m afraid the GOP side is more guilty.

- TV ratings rule the day. If trashing whatever progress BO may have made will result in advertising sales, then so it shall be.

Not to drive off-topic, but one of my fantasies is that BO, if elected, will seat a bipartisan Cabinet. A non-Dem VP would be even more brilliant (Hagel?), but it’ll never happen. The combo of deranged partisanship, coupled with cable news and talk radio driving the narrative, is positively wrecking the country. Rush’s snickering dismissal of anything related to conservation helps no one. If BO could manage to dial back the level of partisanship, it would be a huge achievement. Unfortunately, many on my side of the aisle are only interested in punishing the GOP. This is understandable, but not helpful.

]]> By: Daniel Larison http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/07/19/who-cares-what-the-iraqis-think/comment-page-1/#comment-12424 Daniel Larison Sat, 19 Jul 2008 22:22:45 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/07/19/who-cares-what-the-iraqis-think/#comment-12424 This Maliki interview does seem to do a pretty good job of neutralising any possible advantages McCain might have regarding Iraq, which were in any case pretty minimal in his best-case scenario. My pessimism still makes me try to imagine how this could backfire. Could McCain play a nationalist angle and say, "We're going to do what's in America's best interests, regardless of what any Iraqi politician has to say!"? Never mind that putting the American interest first would make ending the war even more imperative and would undermine the rationale for staying in Iraq. In McCain's view, he might think that he can fake out the voters with his constant refrains of "country first," and maybe he could. The campaign already seems to be moving in this direction with its focus on the military and military advice. Could McCain, along with a complicit press corps, turn this around and say, "Ignoring the judgement of U.S. military commanders is the wrong thing to do. I don't do things just because they are popular--unlike Prime Minister Maliki--but because they are right, blah blah blah."? There are enough McCain-lovers in the media who would perpetuate the heroic truth-teller image that I can imagine a scenario, as bizarre as it seems, where this could work to undermine the antiwar cause. I think it would be a mistake to assume that this is the obvious "game-changer" that some are taking it to be. Maybe it will prove to be that, and I would very glad if it did, but we have seen this movie too many times already where such-and-such an event occurs and what seems to be the obvious conclusion (leave Iraq quickly!) is always turned on its head and we end up staying. This Maliki interview does seem to do a pretty good job of neutralising any possible advantages McCain might have regarding Iraq, which were in any case pretty minimal in his best-case scenario. My pessimism still makes me try to imagine how this could backfire.

Could McCain play a nationalist angle and say, “We’re going to do what’s in America’s best interests, regardless of what any Iraqi politician has to say!”? Never mind that putting the American interest first would make ending the war even more imperative and would undermine the rationale for staying in Iraq. In McCain’s view, he might think that he can fake out the voters with his constant refrains of “country first,” and maybe he could. The campaign already seems to be moving in this direction with its focus on the military and military advice. Could McCain, along with a complicit press corps, turn this around and say, “Ignoring the judgement of U.S. military commanders is the wrong thing to do. I don’t do things just because they are popular–unlike Prime Minister Maliki–but because they are right, blah blah blah.”? There are enough McCain-lovers in the media who would perpetuate the heroic truth-teller image that I can imagine a scenario, as bizarre as it seems, where this could work to undermine the antiwar cause. I think it would be a mistake to assume that this is the obvious “game-changer” that some are taking it to be. Maybe it will prove to be that, and I would very glad if it did, but we have seen this movie too many times already where such-and-such an event occurs and what seems to be the obvious conclusion (leave Iraq quickly!) is always turned on its head and we end up staying.

]]> By: John Schwenkler http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/07/19/who-cares-what-the-iraqis-think/comment-page-1/#comment-12423 John Schwenkler Sat, 19 Jul 2008 22:07:18 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/07/19/who-cares-what-the-iraqis-think/#comment-12423 Thanks, Daniel. (I'm not sure why that post tracked back twice.) I had looked a while back for some polling data on Iraqi public opinion but couldn't find any at the time; this does, however, nicely confirm my suspicions of that NYT article, which really was a case study in putting anecdote before analysis. If Obama and the Democrats don't manage to ride this Maliki statement to victory, then quite frankly they deserve to lose. Thanks, Daniel. (I’m not sure why that post tracked back twice.) I had looked a while back for some polling data on Iraqi public opinion but couldn’t find any at the time; this does, however, nicely confirm my suspicions of that NYT article, which really was a case study in putting anecdote before analysis. If Obama and the Democrats don’t manage to ride this Maliki statement to victory, then quite frankly they deserve to lose.

]]> By: Let’s get packing « Upturned Earth || John Schwenkler http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/07/19/who-cares-what-the-iraqis-think/comment-page-1/#comment-12420 Let’s get packing « Upturned Earth || John Schwenkler Sat, 19 Jul 2008 21:00:57 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/07/19/who-cares-what-the-iraqis-think/#comment-12420 [...] All of which is just a long way of prefacing my thanks to Daniel Larison for this: The January 2006 World Public Opinion survey of Iraqi opinion [link here - JLS] is now over two years old, which is worth noting since almost three out of four Iraqis supported a timetable for withdrawal of no more than two years then.  Even with the intervening nightmarish violence of 2006, it is hard to imagine that public opinion has shifted so much that most Iraqis now want us to stay when two years ago 70% of them wanted us to be gone by now.  What is more, 87% supported the Iraqi government endorsing a timeline for withdrawal, and large majorities expected that security would improve in the wake of a withdrawal.  Indeed, as the September 2006 survey showed, despite the horrors of the summer of that year (or perhaps because of them), support for withdrawal remained basically unchanged.  Someone might object that this is old information, so what do newer surveys show?  [...] [...] All of which is just a long way of prefacing my thanks to Daniel Larison for this: The January 2006 World Public Opinion survey of Iraqi opinion [link here - JLS] is now over two years old, which is worth noting since almost three out of four Iraqis supported a timetable for withdrawal of no more than two years then.  Even with the intervening nightmarish violence of 2006, it is hard to imagine that public opinion has shifted so much that most Iraqis now want us to stay when two years ago 70% of them wanted us to be gone by now.  What is more, 87% supported the Iraqi government endorsing a timeline for withdrawal, and large majorities expected that security would improve in the wake of a withdrawal.  Indeed, as the September 2006 survey showed, despite the horrors of the summer of that year (or perhaps because of them), support for withdrawal remained basically unchanged.  Someone might object that this is old information, so what do newer surveys show?  [...]

]]> By: Let’s get packing « Upturned Earth || John Schwenkler http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/07/19/who-cares-what-the-iraqis-think/comment-page-1/#comment-12421 Let’s get packing « Upturned Earth || John Schwenkler Sat, 19 Jul 2008 21:00:57 +0000 http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/07/19/who-cares-what-the-iraqis-think/#comment-12421 [...] All of which is just a long way of prefacing my thanks to Daniel Larison for this: The January 2006 World Public Opinion survey of Iraqi opinion [link here - JLS] is now over two years old, which is worth noting since almost three out of four Iraqis supported a timetable for withdrawal of no more than two years then.  Even with the intervening nightmarish violence of 2006, it is hard to imagine that public opinion has shifted so much that most Iraqis now want us to stay when two years ago 70% of them wanted us to be gone by now.  What is more, 87% supported the Iraqi government endorsing a timeline for withdrawal, and large majorities expected that security would improve in the wake of a withdrawal.  Indeed, as the September 2006 survey showed, despite the horrors of the summer of that year (or perhaps because of them), support for withdrawal remained basically unchanged.  Someone might object that this is old information, so what do newer surveys show?  [...] [...] All of which is just a long way of prefacing my thanks to Daniel Larison for this: The January 2006 World Public Opinion survey of Iraqi opinion [link here - JLS] is now over two years old, which is worth noting since almost three out of four Iraqis supported a timetable for withdrawal of no more than two years then.  Even with the intervening nightmarish violence of 2006, it is hard to imagine that public opinion has shifted so much that most Iraqis now want us to stay when two years ago 70% of them wanted us to be gone by now.  What is more, 87% supported the Iraqi government endorsing a timeline for withdrawal, and large majorities expected that security would improve in the wake of a withdrawal.  Indeed, as the September 2006 survey showed, despite the horrors of the summer of that year (or perhaps because of them), support for withdrawal remained basically unchanged.  Someone might object that this is old information, so what do newer surveys show?  [...]

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