Millennial Surprise
Posted on July 30th, 2008
by Daniel Larison |
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Over the course of the last few months, Rasmussen has been tracking attitudes about voting for a black candidate for President. What they have been finding is that the public is gradually becoming more willing to support such a candidate, but what is most striking in the three surveys they have done is how constant and relatively great the unwillingness to support a black candidate has been in the age group you probably least expect. According to the three surveys, 18-29 year olds are now relatively less willing to support a black candidate than voters from other age groups. While resistance to supporting a black candidate has dropped in every other age group since February, and overall stands at just 8%, it remains basically unchanged among the youngest voters.
While older generations report slightly increased unwillingness among friends, family and co-workers (which is the pollster’s way of trying to get around respondents who self-censor), approximately one-fifth (22%) of 18-29 year olds state their own unwillingness to vote for a black presidential candidate. When asked about the willingness of friends, family and co-workers, the figure for “no” rises to 31%, which is the largest percentage in any age group. Older voters will tend to say they are less sure about the attitudes of friends and family, but there is evidence of more explicit resistance among 18-29 year olds in both responses.
Of course, roughly three-quarters of this group say that they are willing, and it is among these young voters that Obama has drawn many of his most enthusiastic supporters. Even so, what we seem to be seeing is that unwillingness to support a black candidate is actually much stronger and more enduring among young voters, who are much more likely now to say this openly. This would seem to undermine conventional narratives that ”Millennials” are less concerned about matters of race than their elders, and it may be that the greater diversity of Millennials is a cause of this.
Cross-posted at The Daily Dish
Filed under: politics
Other than hating being lumped with Millenials, I think the kids just aren’t answering honestly. I would speculate that many wouldn’t consider it a serious question and give an unserious response. Obviously I can’t prove that.
It might be a combination of some segments of my generation reacting negatively to having PC muticulturalist attitudes foisted on them without their input, as well as broader distaste for political correctness in general. But I have no doubt that the tolerant majority is genuine in their open-mindedness.
My generation has had much less cultural pressure to censor themselves, and are less likely to feel personal guilt over the plight of minorities, making them less susceptable to the extortive power of PC. The socio-political context that compelled the older generations to rationalize away their discomfort with “others” exists to a lesser extent. Also, Millennials have grown up along side the rise of Gangsta culture, which many of us find disgusting, and may unfairly draw stereotypes of minority groups from a distasteful pop-culture phenomenon ,leading to a unfortunate general dislike.
Did more of them go to school with blacks?
Bad experiences there, plus the “who sits where to have lunch?” side of high school and college life, might be an explanation.
Very interesting, Daniel. Very interesting, indeed. If more details in the matter should reach your attention, one way or the other, please keep us apprised.
Howard
There are probably several factors at work: less self-censorship, a certain open brashness that almost needs to take an unacceptable stand for validation’s sake, and the impact of growing up entirely under the multicultural aegis (with both the pushback that implies and the tendency to value personal identity above all else) all come to mind.
That said, I suspect that the main factor driving this is the vastly higher representation of Latinos in this particular age demographic.