Enthusiasm
Posted on September 4th, 2008
by Daniel Larison |
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The new CBS/NYT poll offers some evidence that the GOP ticket has not enjoyed a bounce from the Palin announcement so much as it has coincided with an odd Obama weakening, as an eight-point lead last week at this time has become a tie mainly through weakening support for Obama and a slight increase in the number of undecided voters. During the days between Sunday, when the last poll was completed, and today Obama voters have become significantly less enthusiastic about their ticket (from 67% to 55%) and they are more likely to support Obama/Biden with reservations (from 16% to 30%). Enthusiasm for McCain among his backers has ticked up 10 points this week. An enthusiasm gap that had been like a yawning chasm has become a much narrower divide. I can understand why McCain’s number went up, but it makes no sense that any Obama supporters would become less enthusiastic about their ticket on account of the Palin selection.
More troubling for Obama is the figure on his effectiveness as Commander-in-Chief, which has actually declined by a few points since the weekend. Perhaps the constant comparisons between Palin and Obama have worked to Obama’s disadvantage, and it may be that the attacks on McCain’s judgement because of the VP selection have not registered with these respondents. McCain has gained slightly with independents, now trailing by three instead of six, and has solidified white evangelicals behind him even more (as he was inevitably going to do anyway–another reason why the Palin pick, besides being risky, was probably redundant in at least some respects). The white evangelical numbers are interesting: Obama receives just 18% support from this group, which is just about the lowest level he or any previous Democratic nominee has ever received in a poll.
Filed under: politics
Eh, Democrats are a cowardly, superstitious lot, and afraid of losing yet again. It doesn’t take too much to make them less enthusiastic about their ticket.
I wouldn’t rush to draw anything from this poll. It seems skewed. Versus the one it’s being compared to, it has about 200 fewer participants, and if you look at the party ID numbers, this poll has 5-6 percentage points more GOP, and proportionally fewer Dem and Indy, respondents. It also doesn’t match up with the numbers at Gallup, RCP or Rasmussen.
As to Dem enthusiasm, Marc Ambinder reported earlier that Obama has pulled in $8 million since Palin’s speech ended, versus about $1 million for McCain. So there’s that.
We should start seeing the impact, if any, of Palin’s speech in tomorrow’s Gallup numbers.
Rasmussen and Gallup, over the same 3 day period, have Obama up by 9 and 5. I’ll believe the CBS/NYT poll when and if it becomes a trend. One poll doesn’t tell us much.
And my general rule is that a highly counterintuitive result such as the Dem breakdown in this poll (whether favorable or not to my candidate) is much more often than not just a statistical fluke. Significantly, fund raising figures since the speech seem to point the other direction vis a vis Democratic enthusiasm.
I do expect that the lower evangelical numbers are real and reflect Palin’s presence on the ticket.
Finally, whatever one thinks about the validity of the poll, it’s important to point out that it was taken over a three day period. Most if not all (depending upon when they stopped polling yesterday) of the people pollled hadn’t heard the Palin speech.
I have difficulty believing anything had much influence over a 3 day weekend. I would attribute it to noise until confirmed elsewhere.
I’m surprised that you’re surprised by Obama’s weakness. Americans prefer their change served in small bites and they have a penchant for electing Republican presidents and Democratic Congresses. All McCain has to do is represent a change from Bush/Cheney and he’ll win. With Annie Oakley riding shotgun that’s almost a done deal.