Comments on: Enthusiasm

By: SpragueD

SpragueD — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 01:30:18 +0000

I’m surprised that you’re surprised by Obama’s weakness. Americans prefer their change served in small bites and they have a penchant for electing Republican presidents and Democratic Congresses. All McCain has to do is represent a change from Bush/Cheney and he’ll win. With Annie Oakley riding shotgun that’s almost a done deal.

By: M.Z. Forrest

M.Z. Forrest — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 01:28:48 +0000

I have difficulty believing anything had much influence over a 3 day weekend. I would attribute it to noise until confirmed elsewhere.

By: LMaggitti

LMaggitti — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 00:38:24 +0000

Rasmussen and Gallup, over the same 3 day period, have Obama up by 9 and 5. I’ll believe the CBS/NYT poll when and if it becomes a trend. One poll doesn’t tell us much.

And my general rule is that a highly counterintuitive result such as the Dem breakdown in this poll (whether favorable or not to my candidate) is much more often than not just a statistical fluke. Significantly, fund raising figures since the speech seem to point the other direction vis a vis Democratic enthusiasm.

I do expect that the lower evangelical numbers are real and reflect Palin’s presence on the ticket.

Finally, whatever one thinks about the validity of the poll, it’s important to point out that it was taken over a three day period. Most if not all (depending upon when they stopped polling yesterday) of the people pollled hadn’t heard the Palin speech.

By: DaveA

DaveA — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 00:37:22 +0000

I wouldn’t rush to draw anything from this poll. It seems skewed. Versus the one it’s being compared to, it has about 200 fewer participants, and if you look at the party ID numbers, this poll has 5-6 percentage points more GOP, and proportionally fewer Dem and Indy, respondents. It also doesn’t match up with the numbers at Gallup, RCP or Rasmussen.

As to Dem enthusiasm, Marc Ambinder reported earlier that Obama has pulled in $8 million since Palin’s speech ended, versus about $1 million for McCain. So there’s that.

We should start seeing the impact, if any, of Palin’s speech in tomorrow’s Gallup numbers.

By: justinslot

justinslot — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 00:21:02 +0000

Eh, Democrats are a cowardly, superstitious lot, and afraid of losing yet again. It doesn’t take too much to make them less enthusiastic about their ticket.