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I suspect that at least on this occasion, the “Bradley effect” will not be measurable, at least in the elctoral colleges.

It’s one thing for Deukmejian to pull an upset in a relatively short campaign in which racial animus could be both concentrated and to some extent, embarrassing. It’s quite another to believe that in an extended and highly polarising campaign that has been more or less non-stop since the mid terms, Bradley voters wouldn’t have found politically acceptable reasons to defect.

Polls suggest something like 11% of voters think Obama is some sort of Muslim “manchurian candidate”. In the past 6 months we have seen PUMA, ‘bittergate’, Reverend Wright, Rezko, and Michelle Obama’s “I’m finally proud to be American” remarks. If this doesn’t all appeal to Bradley voters, it’s hard to imagine what would. Throw in the fact that McCain is running, to some extent, against the Republicans, trades on being a war hero, and has an Alaskan Annie Oakley as a deputy, and you have to think those Bradley voters are already in the red column in the polls.

It might even be that the current perceptions of crisis on Wall Street encourage at least some Bradley voters to set aside their prejudice and head to the Democratic candidate, who consistently rates higher on the economy. There’s a famous Simpsons’ episode in which Homer sets aside his homophobia after being rescued by a homosexual. It may well be that Bradley voters come to see Obama this way.

On this reasoning, Obama’s polling looks more like a floor rather than a ceiling, and when you throw in their GOTV effort and the underpolling of cellphone only voters, the electoral map, even in relatively safe states like Kentucky does look ominous for the Republicans. I read that McCain is down from a 20 point to only a ten point lead in Kentucky and now trailing in North Carolina. Significantly, Obama has picked up support in Kentucky amongst “white men”.

It’s hard to imagine someone of McCain’s temperament will react coolly to these atmospherics if they haven’t changed in 2 weeks time.

With Palin now looking to be dragging him down, another dose of Katiue Couric and her due to go to air before Thursday’s debate, you do wonder where the McCain campaign can fight back.

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2008/08/consolidating-the-hispanic-vote/?section=Analysis

As for Indiana, I think the polling there is highly suspect due mostly to the vast difference in ground games for the two campaigns. If McCain continuest to take Indiana for granted, he could be in for a very rude awakening. I think Ann Selzer’s the bellwether here. If she’s right in her assumptions about youth and minority turnout being higher than expected, her Obama +3 result in IN could be prescient. Remember how well Obama closed against Clinton there too.