Comments on: Palin’s Appeal

By: mbtogut

mbtogut — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 00:09:23 +0000

From Kos: Remember to factor in your standing… it’s not easy for Sarah Palin to attack when you are 41-50 not qualified to serve. Biden’s “qualified” is 74-18, including 62% of McCain voters. That’s what the debates taught the American voters.

So yeah, her qualification numbers aren’t that different than her favorables, but the differential between her qualification numbers and Biden’s are huge.

I’d agree that those who like her are likely to see her as qualified, whereas even those who don’t like Biden tend to see him as qualified.

By: Daniel Larison

Daniel Larison — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 18:53:02 +0000

Actually, I think her favs are slightly better than her qualification numbers, but I don’t think they vary that much. In general, if people like her they think they is capable of doing the job. Rasmussen uses a slightly different measure in some of their state polls–the respondents’ comfort level with the idea of the candidate as VP. The Rasmussen numbers in various states show that those who are “not comfortable at all” with the idea of Palin as VP seem to max out at around 45%, which is close to her unfavs nationally. I will keep looking into it.

By: mbtogut

mbtogut — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 18:45:27 +0000

How do her favorability ratings compare with her ratings as to how many people think she’s actually qualified to be vice-president or president? The last polls I saw showed about a 20 point gap between her and Biden in Biden’s favor. Plenty of people could conceivably find her winky, perky persona appealing, yet still think she’s unqualified for the job for which she’s been nominated.

If the McCain campaign goes down big, I’m betting it will take her future in national politics with it. Thank goodness.

By: nyx

nyx — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 15:34:57 +0000

Let me just say, I am not at all surprised to see high unfavorables among 18-29 year olds. My anecdotal impression is that Tina Fey has done more damage to Palin’s reputation than a thousand Katie Couric interviews.

By: Indya

Indya — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 15:28:51 +0000

Her ratings stay high because people are either willfully ignorant and/or don’t believe the “elitist media” about the faults to her record that reveal that she isn’t quite the fiscal conservative that she sells herself to be, and that she’s just really good at stabbing people in the back, and instead keep drawing the experience strawman “But what about Obama?” for equivalence, when they are very much not equal. He at least has a first-class intellect and is versed in policy matters, however much one may disagree with them. She, on the other hand, has a hard time putting sentences together that she hasn’t memorized, when it comes to national policies, or her own running mate’s platform. No comparison, but they willfully see them as equal.

By: LMaggitti

LMaggitti — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 15:21:44 +0000

Thanks. Those numbers are, indeed, striking in some respects. (The 18-29 and 65+ are particularly interesting, though I suppose to some extent they just track the demographics of the Obama/McCain race even prior to her selection.) I guess I should (will) do some research on my own, but I’d love to see the cross-tabs on income. Specifically, I’d love to see the numbers on, say, the second from the bottom quintile for family income. From all the rhetoric surrounding her (and coming from her), you would think that she would be wildly popular in that demographic. I’d wager, though, that she is under 50% for that quintile.

By: Daniel Larison

Daniel Larison — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 15:07:02 +0000

You asked for crosstabs. Here are some of the more striking ones. All numbers are fav/unfav.

Men: 57/42
Women: 52/48
18-29: 34/60
65+: 60/39
White: 59/39
Black: 19/80
Reps: 90/10
Independents: 57/41
Moderates: 46/53

By: LMaggitti

LMaggitti — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 15:02:40 +0000

hmm, the end of my last comment got cut off. Should be “than most of the “serious” 2012 presidential contenders.

By: LMaggitti

LMaggitti — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 15:00:52 +0000

I’d be really interested to see the cross-tabs on her favorability ratings. Are any available? I suspect (hope?) that they are a lot less favorable than one might think among the kind of “Joe six pack” (I always though that that was a faintly pejorative/condescending expressions, btw) people she claims to represent.

Be that as it may, certainly much of her most rabid fans among pundits are the kind of people who will turn on her the minute McCain loses. Maybe “the base” will remain behind her; I’m not so sure. Overall, I tend to think that Daniel is correct, but I wouldn’t count her out entirely as a factor in the primaries. Actually winning the primaries, of course, is a different matter, and if she did somehow manage the trick, she would get creamed in the general election.

I still think that Huckabee would be formidable, though if they are both in the race they would obviosly be competing for many of the same voters. But Huckabee would IMO be a MUCH stronger candidate, with most of her strengths, fewer weaknesses and many strengths of his own. Mind you, from the perspective of a left libertarian he is almost the last person I’d like to see in the White House. Then again, as a non-interventionist, I see some hope that Huckabee might be a little less likely to blow up the world than

By: Daniel Larison

Daniel Larison — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 14:20:23 +0000

No way, eh? Goodness knows I’m not a great one for predictions, but I’m trying to understand how she does that well in most primaries. Regardless, I doubt she’ll win very many. Finishing second in a lot of places–and she won’t be in second in N.H., I am pretty sure–and $2 gets you a cup of coffee in the GOP nominating contest. She isn’t a Southerner, but she is evangelical, so she stands to lose to Huckabee in the South and lose to some non-evangelical everywhere else. Besides, once the need to support the ticket is gone just watch as there is suddenly a lot of rethinking about whether Palin is really qualified to be President after all. Besides, Huckabee has the inside track with a lot of people as an early opponent of the bailout. This is all beside the point. She is about to reprise Jack Kemp’s 1996 role and that will be the end of 2012 speculation about her.

By: tenaciousd

tenaciousd — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 13:55:51 +0000

“No one, least of all her die-hard admirers, wants to see her celebrating a three-way tie for third place in New Hampshire.”

Don’t fool yourself. There’s no way she finishes worse than second in any GOP primary anywhere. I think Palin might be a monster of the GOP’s own making. A Roy Moore with a disarmingly cute (and distinctly non-Southern) accent and nice gams. I have a feeling she’s going to be around clogging the intellectual arteries of conservatism for some time to come. I don’t see how she doesn’t parlay this into at least a Senate seat. She’ll be speaking to packed houses and standing ovations at every mega-church in the nation over the next four years.