Who Will Survive?
Posted on October 23rd, 2008
by Daniel Larison |
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Four months ago, I said of House GOP prospects:
We are probably looking at another year of a net gain of 30 seats for Democrats, and perhaps more than that depending on how the public mood changes over the summer with gas prices continuing to rise.
In light of the financial crisis, McCain’s worsening numbers and intense anti-GOP sentiment, it seems that my guess of a 30-seat loss was probably far too conservative. We are now looking at losses in many districts that were once considered Republican-leaning or even safe. Losses are more likely to be in the neighborhood of 40-48 seats thanks in part to erosion of Republican support in such reliably safe seats as NM-02 and Michelle Bachmann’s self-immolation. Disaster scenarios might involve net losses of 70, but that is not all that likely.
Regardless, if Virgil Goode, the representative in my old stomping grounds of Prince Edward County in Virginia, is considered vulnerable, the GOP is in truly desperate straits. It’s strange to think that Goode only ten years ago starting making his journey from being a Democrat to independent to Republican, only to find himself on the verge of being thrown out for identifying with that party. If anything, from what I understand this new Politico story is understating the extent of Republican problems. This does not begin to address the difficulties that some ostensibly favored California and Arizona Republicans are facing. Lungren, once considered the rising star of the California GOP not that long ago, may not be re-elected in CA-03; Rohrabacher, a fixture of the California right, is also vulnerable in CA-46. Obviously, the possibility of Shadegg’s defeat in “reddest” Arizona is startling. Even the few pick-up opportunities in districts lost in ‘06 because of scandal will barely offset the huge losses that are coming. The Senate elections are looking similarly bleak, but will probably result in no more than a net gain of eight seats in Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire, Alaska, Oregon, Minnesota and North Carolina. My guess is that Wicker, Chambliss and McConnell squeak out victories despite their many difficulties, but not by much. The disaster scenario entails all eleven vulnerable seats flipping. This would mark something as close to total repudiation of a major party as any we have seen in two consecutive postwar election cycles.
Filed under: politics
This is the apocalypse.
Daily Kos should thank Bush every day for making the Republican Party poison.
Nyx -
Yeah, but I seriously nominate McCain for an assist if not equal credit – this was going to be a horrible cycle for the Reps no matter what, but for the last few months Mr. Maverick hasn’t missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity to make it a little less poisonous – never mind the SAM as long as he can bravely drop his bombs.
Right or not, the democrats (w significant support from Bush and McCain) have substantially eroded the traditional GOP strength on both economic management and foreign policy/defence leadership. It took a lot of effort to squander these traditional strengths. I don’t think Obama will create any easy opening for the GOP to re-establish their ‘brand’.
Even though policy purists may decry issues such as universal healthcare as socialism etc etc, the general public may find it much to their tastes (as they find many entitlement programs). It’ll be a long haul for the GOP to re-invent themselves, as they are now on the wrong side on virtually all issues (from a general public point of view).
Bachmann deserves exactly what she’s getting, as does anyone else who aids and abets the crazy neo-McCarthyism she proffers or the xenophobic, racist, anti-Muslim smearing. The Republican Party disgraced itself when it permitted such dialogue to go on. I mean, why? When there were such clear differences on the issues, they couldn’t sell them. The truth is that they were just not to be trusted, and they are reaping the whirlwind. They need the wilderness and need it badly.
I agree that McConnell will probably squeak out a win, for one, and suspect that Lungren has a better than even chance.
But note that so many of the other threatened GOP names are known for their outrageousness — Sali, Bachman, Rohrabacher, Shadegg.
The Overton Window has closed on the far right. Republicans who survive this election will be a quieter group, perhaps even more thoughtful, more open-minded.
This election won’t be good for the party in the short run, but in the long run could be good both for the GOP and the nation. We can hope.
I wish the media would thrash the people who stereotype and disparage “rednecks” as hard as they do Bachmann. I am so tired of “America the thin skinned” I could throw up.
I am as conservative as you’ll get and I am not voting R this year. My rep even correctly voted against the bailout, but for the wrong reasons, so I am done with him too.
We don’t need any more open minded Republicans. We need Republicans with spines. We need to redemonize socialism, and take back our country and our freedoms.
We need Republicans with spines.
It’s exactly this balls over brains approach that’s put the GOP in this soup.
I can’t shed too many tears about the Republican meltdown, given the politics of division they’ve practiced at the national level for so many years now. The party of Rove is getting it’s just desserts and needs to be rebuilt from the bottom-up.
Daily Kos should thank Bush every day for making the Republican Party poison.
Well, I wouldn’t go that far. Most of us would be content with a more divided government if it meant that a more competent and less harmful administration had been in power the last eight years.
It’s exactly this balls over brains approach that’s put the GOP in this soup.
Nonsense. You might be mistaking “spine” for “hubris” in which case we agree.
If you think the GOP needs to move even farther left to regain control, then there’s really not much point in even having a GOP. We’ll just be like China, a 1 party system.
Enough with the new federal programs, departments and deficits. We have far too many entitlements, and too much interference in our daily lives. Somebody needs to say “No” when the socialists and the corporations come begging.
If they have no interest in that, then I have no interest in them.
I’m glad I have family members who can attest to it, but I once told the more radically liberal elements of my family to be thankful for Bush. If there were going to be a Republican takeover of Washington, then Bush, Delay, et al. were exactly the men you wanted in charge. They’ve done more for the Democrats than they could ever have done for themselves. It’s going to be a come-uppance of Biblical proportions.
I think it has become apparent that “the traditional GOP strength on both economic management and foreign policy/defence (sic) leadership” was all just marketing. It wasn’t eroded by the Democrats or Bush or McCain but by people’s realization that there was nothing behind the bluster.