Reckless Predictions Are Back!

Posted on November 1st, 2008 by Daniel Larison

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With just three days until the election (can it be true–it’s really almost over?), here are some not terribly surprising predictions.  Obama will win 54-46% with 364 votes in the Electoral College (Missouri will vote for Obama).  Republicans will lose Senate seats in AK, NM, CO, VA, NH, NC, OR and MN, but narrowly retain the GA, MS and KY seats.  In the House, Democrats will lose TX-22 and FL-16, as these are normally heavily Republican districts that were lost due to past scandals, as well as PA-11 (Kanjorski’s seat) and LA-06 (Cazayoux will not prevail in the general), but Nancy Boyda in Kansas and Shea-Porter in New Hampshire will be re-elected.  The Democrats will win 33 other seats: IL-11, AK-AL, FL-08, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, CO-04, OH-16, NY-29, MI-09, CA-04, ID-01, IL-10, MD-01, LA-04, NJ-07, NJ-03, MI-07, MN-03, NC-08, NV-03, NM-02, OH-01, OH-15, PA-03, WA-08, IN-03, NY-26, OH-02, NY-13, NY-25, VA-11 and VA-05.  Baffling outsiders, Bachmann will survive the fallout from her Hardball interview.  So, in some relatively good news for the GOP, the majority will have a net gain of just 29. 

Darren White will win in NM-01, continuing the inexplicable tradition of metro Albuquerque always electing a Republican representative.  This last prediction is the one most likely to be proved false, because I voted for White and there is another time-honored tradition that says that every candidate I vote for must lose.

Filed under: politics

6 Responses to “Reckless Predictions Are Back!”

  1. DarrenG, on November 1st, 2008 at 6:33 pm Said:

    Seems fairly reasonable, if a stretch in places.

    You realize the Georgia Senate race is very likely to result in a December runoff, though, yes?

  2. Daniel Larison, on November 1st, 2008 at 7:04 pm Said:

    Yes, that’s true. I was unsure what to say about the Georgia race, since there does seem to be a flood of new voters turning out in recent days and I am also not-so-secretly hoping that Chambliss gets his comeuppance.

  3. rainmaker11, on November 1st, 2008 at 9:16 pm Said:

    Is there any polling data to support your contention that Cazayoux is one and done? All the polling I have seen puts this race in the Democratic column.

  4. Daniel Larison, on November 1st, 2008 at 9:39 pm Said:

    The last poll I saw from a few weeks back had him up by a good bit, but he was below 50% and Jackson stands to take away a number of his voters. My thinking was that a three-way race that is rated as a toss-up will end up reverting to the GOP. I may be wrong.

  5. ottovbvs, on November 2nd, 2008 at 7:09 am Said:

    Not far off the mark although I think Chambliss is more at risk than you do. I know quite few people in GA having lived there for awhile who are Republicans and they think he’s a goner and they have become more convinced in recent days because of the incredible surge, and it is an incredible surge, of early voters. An interesting little sidelight on the dangers of voter suppression. One of these guys and his wife who are solid but moderate Republicans had to stand in a line for about five hours to vote. They started off quite ready to pull the right levers literally and figuratively but were so ticked by the time they got both pulled for the Dem presidential and senatorial ticket.

  6. DaveA, on November 2nd, 2008 at 9:35 pm Said:

    Predictions for Tuesday? C’mon, everyone is doing those. I got six tacos that say Daniel will endorse Obama’s re-election in 2012…

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