Some Things Never Change

Posted on February 26th, 2009 by Daniel Larison

Bolton, echoing Joe Biden, said that Obama would be challenged internationally by foreign powers who seek to test the young administration. He said that Obama’s weak reaction to Georgia during the campaign coupled with his skepticism regarding missile defense has emboldened a resurgent Russia [bold mine-DL]. ~Philip Klein

It’s no surprise that John Bolton is saying this, and it’s not exactly shocking that Bolton is completely wrong about something relating to international affairs, but what is remarkable about this is that anyone could make such a statement now and expect to be taken seriously. Oil prices have gone into a nosedive, Russian currency and gold reserves have been vanishing rapidly and Russia’s resurgence in terms of real power has been put on hold. All of this had already happened before Obama was elected and well before he came into office. How he has emboldened a state that is more preoccupied with protests over imported cars is unclear, and it is even less clear what difference it would make if a weakened Russia were actually emboldened at the present time. What exactly would they do? So far, the administration has not done anything particularly provocative or insulting, which for the Boltons of the world is the same thing as surrender and retreat. Obama’s skepticism regarding the missile defense installations in central Europe is appropriate, and after a brief flirtation with sanity Obama stuck to the establishment line on Georgia and “Russian aggression.” Incredibly, he and Biden are still advocates for Georgian membership in NATO. If anything, Obama’s Russia advisor McFaul is too inclined to support the same kind of misguided Russia policy that we have had in the past, and the administration remains too wedded to positively harmful policies, including NATO expansion and this missile defense plan. Bolton is bound to frame such provocative policies as “weak,” because that is what he does, but I don’t know why anyone else should be listening to him.

One Response to “Some Things Never Change”

  1. The economic changes that have undermined Russia’s economy and currency position present an opportunity for Obama to redefine the US relationship with Russia in a way that probably would then be even more significant to the Russians. It’s one thing to change your policies toward a nation that is ascendant, increasingly powerful, etc. But to do that change when its power is descending due to economic reversal (as obviously ours is as well) shows a more genuine desire for a fruitful relationship. I better that would make a bigger impact on the Russian public.

    But, you’re right, Daniel, the early signs don’t necessarily indicate a change. Still, it may be Obama is picking his spot and waiting for attention to diminish a bit from the Russo-phobes to make any public change; while quietly communicating back channel.

    We can hope, as it’s long overdue.

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