I’m here all week, try the veal!

Lebanon’s politics are [...] Byzantine

I find this quote quite humorous, but I wonder if the author intended it that way.

Then theres always the good retort that the Supreme Leader always holds all the cards anyways. It being a rather opaque system they have, we have no idea how much of what Ahmadinejad did was approved or un-approved; its doubtful we’ll ever know. Is the Supreme Leader the true puppet master everyone accuses him of being, or is merely an Islamic version of Queen Elizabeth? That would require far more information than any of us has.

And I actually wouldn’t be surprised if the same waves might very well make a difference in Iran’s elections. Obama is one *less* reason to tolerate Ahmadinejad, “the devil they know but no longer need.”

Tangentially, I happened to see this today…

“I’m sometimes asked who I would vote for if I were enfranchised in this election, and I think that, with due hesitance, I would vote for Ahmadinejad,” [Daniel] Pipes [now Middle East director for the Heritage Foundation] said. The reason, Pipes went on, is that he would “prefer to have an enemy who’s forthright and obvious, who wakes people up with his outlandish statements.”

TPM has a collection of other neocons, generally freaking out that they will loose their boogeman. Interventionists are happy to have liars on the other side of the table– all the better to forgo the table in the first place, I suppose.

Obama can at least present the image that he’s honestly stating US interests and ambitions, which, disagree with them you might, he is doing. It is the bare minimum he can do, but it must be done before anything else happens. It might or might not have an effect on elections, but nothing other than the plain truth, free of stupid threats, will have any positive effect at all.

So I’d only say, don’t in general underestimate Obama’s enormous popularity in the Middle East, at least on the street (though I don’t know about Iran or Iraq). As an American (based in the Eastern Province, but traveling around a bit), I’m subject to a steady stream of Arabs and Pakistanis who are all completely intrigued with him and very optimistic about his impact on the world. And they consistently admire America for electing him (while remaining amazed that we did). It’s been an impressive balm, for them!, to the wincing discomfort of the last several years.

So I’m not quibbling with a word of yours, but in your general assessment, don’t underestimate that he is making positive waves in the culture over here. “The street” seems very stirred in a positive way for Obama. (Though I’m personally more in the minimally-positive camp.)

And I actually wouldn’t be surprised if the same waves might very well make a difference in Iran’s elections. Obama is one *less* reason to tolerate Ahmadinejad, “the devil they know but no longer need.” I don’t mean at ALL to pump up Obama by saying that. I’m just saying that the sea change in attitude toward America is really unambiguous around here. That’s bound to factor into some elections at some levels.

I don’t know enough about Lebanese politics to add anything to your analysis. You make a good point about the swing voters being mainly Christian, and so perhaps not likely to be much influenced by Obama’s conciliatory gestures toward ‘the Islamic world’.

The gushing of some Obama supporters reminds me of Bush supporters and the short-lived ‘Arab Spring’.