I did read an analysis of why/how the fraud was perpetrated that proposed that Khamenei and Ahmadinejad became alarmed in the last 1-2 weeks before the election at the size of the rallies for Moussavi and at that point set in motion a poorly-managed initiative to make sure that the vote for Ahmadinejad didn’t look like a wholesale rejection of his leadership. Unfortunately for them, the vote-stuffing appears to have been too blatant.

The Iranian-American Council’s blog has this email from someone in Iran (along with other internal reports):

One close friend of mine worked as election official in Shiraz. He says they received 70 ballot boxes, in which 40 of them were with broken seals. The answer to the question of “why the seals are open?” was that the boxes move in the car during transit, so the seals came off. He says the votes in the 40 open boxes were all for Ahmadinejad and Moosavi was leading in the rest of the 30 boxes.

There are more reports of such fraud which support the assertion that whatever has been reported officially is not an accurate vote count. Certainly Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s statement leaves no doubt that he considers the official results fraudulent.

All that can really be said at this point is that we don’t know who really won the Iranian election and it’s unlikely that we ever will find out.